Is The Election Over?

October 2, 2012 at 11:00 am

Well, how’d you like the outcome of the Presidential election?  I know that some of you were surprised that Obama could win, what with his total ineptness in presiding over the slowest economic recovery in modern times, a real unemployment rate in double digits, close to zero economic growth, and $6 trillion dollars added to our national debt, dividing our nation for his own political gain, and promises of more of the same.

The Media Declared The Election Over, But This Means Nothing

You may be asking yourselves:  “What was it that the American people failed to understand?”  And, “Where do we go now?”

What do you mean the election is not over yet?  Haven’t you been listening to the mainstream media?  Haven’t you seen the poll numbers?  They’ve declared the election over.  Obama won.  Never mind that we’re on the road to economic disaster and are under attack around the world as the Obama Administration desperately tries to cover it up.

Isn’t it much more important that Romney has committed “gaffes?”  Or that he had the audacity to criticize the Administration for apologizing to terrorists for a film that the Administration said caused the death of our Ambassador and three other Americans in Libya while Islamists rioted around the world?

Or that in a candid, private moment he pointed out that 47 percent of Americans pay no federal income tax?

These are the things that the media consider much more important than the U.S. lurching toward 2nd-rate status.  So how could Romney possibly win?

History Could Repeat Itself

Fortunately, you are right, my friends.  The election is not over, any more then it was over at this stage in 1980.  That election and this one are remarkably similar in many ways.  In 1980 the economy was in terrible shape.  The Carter presidency was a failure.  Remember the “misery index?”  Unemployment, inflation and interest rates were in the double digits.  Iranians were holding Americans hostage.  Yet with the aid of a compliant press, Carter led Reagan for most of the election.  There was no way that they were going to let this two-bit, war-monger actor, intent on cutting Medicare, become President.

Days before their first debate, Gallup had it Carter 45, Reagan 42.  Two weeks before the election on October 26 Gallup had Carter ahead 47- 39.  Other polls had it neck and neck.  Nobody, but nobody, could foresee the actual election results.  Reagan carried 44 states in a landslide.

Assumptions Of Voter Enthusiasm

Presidential polls make assumptions about turnout – how many Democrats and how many Republicans will turn out on Election Day.  Most of the polls you read and hear about more heavily weigh Democrats based upon the 2008 turnout, which saw an unusually heavy Democratic turnout and great enthusiasm for Barack Obama.

I’d say that the enthusiasm level this year is much heavier on the Republican side.  Based on what we are seeing in reports about lower-than-expected new voter registrations and Obama’s low approval numbers, as with every election in the past two decades turnout will be key.  One thing is for certain, then: We must not let the media or their polls depress the turnout of those who think that our nation desperately needs a change of direction.

- Fred Thompson